Thursday, December 26, 2019

Doedicurus The Giant Prehistoric Armadillo

Doedicurus was an enormous ancestor of the modern armadillo which wandered the pampas and savannas of South America during the Pleistocene epoch. It disappeared from the fossil record about 10,000 years ago along with many other large Ice Age animals. While climate change made have played a factor in its extinction, its likely that human hunters, too, helped precipitate its demise. Doedicurus Overview Name: Doedicurus (Greek for pestle tail); pronounced DAY-dih-CURE-us Habitat: Swamps of South America Historical Epoch: Pleistocene-Modern (2 million-10,000 years ago) Size and Weight: About 13 feet long and one ton Diet: Plants Distinguishing Characteristics: Large, thick shell; long tail with club and spikes on end About Doedicurus Doedicurus was a member of the Glyptodont family, a megafauna mammal  of the Pleistocene epoch.  It lived at the same time and in the same place as many other enormous Ice Age mammals and birds, including giant ground sloths, saber-toothed cats, and huge flightless carnivorous birds sometimes nicknamed terror birds. While most glyptodonts towering, flightless, carnivorous â€Å"terror birds.† For a relatively brief period, it also shared its habitat with early human beings. Most glyptodonts have been found in South America, but some fossilized remains have been found in the southern United States, from Arizona through the Carolinas. This slow-moving vegetarian was about the size of a small car, was covered by a large, domed, armored shell with an additional smaller dome in front. It also possessed a clubbed, spiked tail similar to those of the ankylosaur and stegosaur dinosaurs that preceded it by tens of millions of years. Researchers suggest that the spiked tails may have been used to attack other males when competing for the attention of females. Some experts believe Doedicurus also had a short, prehensile snout, similar to an elephants trunk, but solid evidence for this is lacking. The carapace (hard upper shell) was anchored to the animals pelvis, but it was not connected to the shoulder. Some paleontologists hypothesize that the smaller front dome may have played a similar role to a camels hump, storing fat for the dry season. It may also have helped protect the animal from predators. DNA Evidence Shows a Connection to Modern Armadillos All Glyptodont species are part of a mammal group called Xenarthra. This group includes a number of modern species including tree sloths and anteaters, as well as several extinct species such as Pampatheres (similar to armadillos) and ground sloths. Until recently, however, the exact relationship between Doedicurus and other members of the Xenarthra group was unclear. Recently, scientists were able to extract fragments of DNA from the fossilized carapace of a 12,000-year-old Doedicurus discovered in South America. Their intent was to establish once and for all the place of Doedicurus and its fellow glyptodonts on the armadillo family tree. Their conclusion: Glyptodonts were, in fact, a distinct Pleistocene sub-family of armadillos, and the closest living relative of these thousand-pound behemoths is the Dwarf Pink Fairy Armadillo of Argentina, which only measures a few inches across. Researchers believe that Glyptodonts and their modern cousins evolved from the same 35 million-year-old common ancestor, a creature that weighed only about 13 pounds. The huge Glyptodonts split off as a group very quickly, while the modern armadillo did not appear until about 30 million years later. According to one theory, the Doedicuruss unarticulated back was an important factor in its extraordinary growth.

Wednesday, December 18, 2019

The World And Its Economic Systems Essay - 2422 Words

PAPER The world and its economic systems been to, at an ever increasing rate. Over thousands of years civilization have developed the means to master resources, such as, land, water and even the heavens. Agriculture allowed the human race to no longer rely on migrant herds of animals, but to settle and look to the ground beneath them for a continued supply of basic needs. Dale and Carter argue, â€Å"both civilization and the enjoyment of civilization rest on the surplus production by those who supply the necessities of life† (1955, p. 9). Once that point in the creation of a society is reached, others are able to veer away from the trade agriculture, specializing in other pursuits valuable to a community. Early examples of this scenario playing to its actors benefits include the Mesopotamians and Egyptians. Farming, specifically a surplus of food, allowed for humans to focus on other pursuits that would further advance the progress of a given community. With the growth in avai lable pursuits, Ellen Wood believes â€Å"an [evolution] of the division of labor †¦ accompanied by technological improvements in the instruments of production† allows for commercial development within a society to take place (1999, p. 5-6). Growth will continue to compound on itself, bar no external interferences - such as drought, famine, plague. With growth came trade of goods. People were placed in a situation in which, as profit-maximizing beings, needed to now exchange their own specific productShow MoreRelatedThe Political And Economic System Of The World2338 Words   |  10 PagesIn the wake of WWII, peace was the main goal sought out by the entirety of the world. However as the twentieth century hit its halfway mark, the conflicting ideals of two countries dragged the world into a tense struggle for power and international identity yet again. The United States of America (USA) and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), were now in a competition to sw ay the rest of the world’s unaffiliated nations. This political, ideological, scientific and military effort wouldRead MoreEconomic Growth And The On Building A World Class Education System1416 Words   |  6 Pageson building a world class education system and research facility right now in Singapore? This are some of the government’s polices to overcome the shortage of things or scarcity so as to achieve a projected growth for the economy. This essay will be discussing on some government (mainly Singapore) policies that can be implement to achieve economic growth and the author’s opinion as to how beneficial these policies are to the economic growth of the country. 2. Key factor to Economic Growth WithRead MoreThe Industrial Revolution And The World s Dominant Economic System1652 Words   |  7 Pagescentury through the second quarter of the XIX century. A characteristic feature of the Industrial Revolution was the rapid growth of the productive forces on the basis of large-scale machine industry and the adoption of capitalism as the world s dominant economic system. The transition to progressive scientific methods of large-scale agricultural production demanded substantial enlargement of sown areas, which in turn led to a rapid increase in yield and productivity of the agricultural labor. As sanitationRead MoreWorld War I : The Aging Political, Economic, And Governmental Systems Of The World1682 Words   |  7 Pages World War I was without a doubt one of the defining event of the 20th century. It turned America into an industrial power, tore down the dying empires of Europe, and led the world into the Modern Age. One would think that this war, with how destructive it wa s, would be conventional in its declaration, or reasons for it, but this it was, in fact, very different from how and why wars now might be declared. The aging political, economic, and governmental systems of the time acted as a very intricatelyRead MoreThe Economic Crisis Of The Financial Systems Within Developed Countries Affected Economies Across The World2024 Words   |  9 PagesTask 1 The economic crisis which erupted from the financial systems within developed countries affected all economies across the world. There was a significant amount of job losses, company bankruptcies and cuts in incomes and budgets (McKibben, Stockel 2009). Companies were focusing on sales growth which took urgency over most workplace including learning and development and many trying to decide what was important in terms of return on investment (Dullien et al 2010). Training and developmentRead MoreSolution to the Current Global Economy: Judaism and Economic Reform, by Norman Solomon1103 Words   |  5 PagesIn the essay â€Å"Judaism and Economic Reform†, Norman Solomon, a Jewish-American journalist, presents a compelling argument on the basis of the need for economic reform while providing simple religious base solutions. While discussing two major economic problems that plague the world’s current economy, Solomon introduces the Jewish view of the global economy and their general view on economics as a whole. With this introduction to the Jewish worldview of economics we as readers are able to transitionRead MoreMaritime Transportation Systems : Maritime Transport System Essay1311 Words   |  6 PagesMaritime Transportation System Maritime Transportation System or MTS is one of the critical infrastructure systems that promote economic activity by enabling the transfer of goods between national and international destinations throughout the globe. As a result of its role in promoting economic activity, Maritime Transportation System is one of the most important elements for the United States national security. However, maritime systems have become increasingly vulnerable to risks that couldRead MoreThe Problem Of National Self Reliance Essay1473 Words   |  6 Pagesseems that economics reveals the weakness in humanity s attempts to both unite as one larger whole, and to maintain separate national identities. Efforts to create a unified front, are slow and challenged by Westphalian conceptions of state sovereignty. Efforts to preserve states individuality and self-reliance reveal the human suffering that was commonplace before globalization began to smooth out the economic extremes experienced in localized areas. All politics, and economics, are local butRead MoreDependency Reduces Conflict1344 Words   |  5 Pagesapparent in the new world economic and international system. The creation of interdependence not only reduces the probability of war between nations but it allows for more peaceful resolutions. This essay will focus on firstly understanding the way in which economic interdependence is possible (embedded liberalism), highlighting issues of what would happen if this system weren’t in place and finally how this system renders war an unattractive solution. Economic globalization and economic integration doesRead MoreThe World Of World War I1293 Words   |  6 Pagesto the beginning of World War I, the world economy was held up by four pillars: the gold standard, free trade, communication and transportation, and capital and labor labor mobility. After facing two world wars and a worldwide economic depression, economists and governments from around the world implemented several development strategies. Some strategists tried to rebuild the order from before World War I in a more flexible and stable way while others bucked the traditional world order all together

Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Youre...Gay free essay sample

Around this planet we call ‘Earth’ one can find all sorts of women roaming about the streets. Females are classified under all sorts of things, whether it is through their beliefs, lifestyle, or even physical characteristics. So why is it that the lesbians of the human race are only classified as these wannabe-men who mow their lawns twice a week and own a cat or two (or three or four or five†¦)? To most people, telling whether or not a girl is a lesbian seems as easy as deciding if the cafeteria is using real potatoes in their tater tots. But, if it is really that simple, then why do the actual lesbians have a terrible time debating over if the lovely maiden across the way plays for their team? Having a better idea of the different classifications will help get people away from the classic butch stereotype and give them a wider range of knowledge on the subject (Which could more than likely create some fresh stereotypes, but what can one truly expect from this worl d?). We will write a custom essay sample on YoureGay? or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page Lipstick Lesbians. And no, these girls are not known as such just for wearing lipstick. Also known as femmes, these female homosexuals are the more womanly side of the lesbian community. They typically wear dresses and skirts, have long hair, and like doing their make-up. One may even catch them shopping designer labels and going out for a non-fat latte on occasion. And while to the untrained eye this girl may appear to be heterosexual, she is in fact, a lesbian, however initially shocking the idea may be. Unfortunately for lesbians who fall under this category, heterosexual men still tend to go after them, even when they are eventually told by their prospect that she is not interested; and not just in him, but males in general. And yet, because of their girly and demure appearance, most straight males still believe that they can achieve the impossible and â€Å"change† this girl by supposedly â€Å"blowing her mind† with â€Å"passionate† intercourse. And yet, that is far from the truth. Despite their looks, many femmes are actually rather independent and strong women. Remarks like â€Å"you just haven’t met the right man yet† most definitely won’t fly. And unless you’re looking for a slap to the face or potential injuries below the belt, it’s not recommended to say â€Å"you’re too pretty to be gay.† Butch Lesbians. We have now proceeded to the total opposite end of the lesbian spectrum, and the one that is more commonly known by others. Butches, also called dykes, are the more masculine female gays. They wear flannels and other plaid prints; they don’t lay a finger on cosmetics; and good luck trying to squeeze one into a bra. You may be able to get their assistance in fixing your car and they just might be up for a sports-related activity. Whatever the case, these lesbians are considered the more dominant role in lesbian relationships, mainly for their display of manly traits as opposed to more feminine ones. Often by heterosexuals, they are mistaken for boys, or when found out to be females, are believed to be either transgender or transsexual. However, these women are just presenting the gender they identify with, and for some, it’s just easier to be shown in a more masculine light. Regrettably for other females, this stereotype of lesbians generally prevents gi rls from wanting to display a more boyish side for fear that they will be assumed to be homosexual in some way. Studs. To put it plainly, they are lesbians who are caught up in the middle of the stereotypes. Studs are that sort of femme-butch hybrid, where they’re not exactly girly, but they’re not particularly manly either. They are generally thought of as the â€Å"pretty boys† of the lesbian population, where their boyish looks have a bit of feminine charm (think Justin Bieber – but without the cheesy pop tunes of adolescent infatuation). These girls may wear the flannels, but also some make-up; they may have big cars, but have no clue how to fix them; and they may play sports, but they’re not necessarily crazy about them. Lesbians who are studs, like butches, are also often mistaken for boys, but usually thought to be younger in age than they really are, once again affirming the â€Å"pretty boy† standpoint (again – think Justin Bieber). Hasbians. Your â€Å"ex-lesbians† – females who had once identified as lesbians, but now partake in heterosexual activities. There are a few different cases when it comes to hasbians. A hasbian could be a woman who is a lesbian, but has actually chosen to pursue a heterosexual lifestyle due to any number of reasons, ranging from religious to family-related, or somewhere in between. Another type of hasbian is a female who thought she was lesbian or experimented with dating other girls and identified as gay, when in fact, she never really was lesbian, but was indeed straight. These types of â€Å"lesbians† are not well-liked in not just the lesbian community, but by those who are LGBTQ (Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender/Transsexual, Queer) in general. It’s mainly because these girls give those who are actually lesbian or bisexual a not-so-great view of homosexuality with the adults and heterosexuals in our society, since they make it out to be something t o take lightly because it comes off as a phase. Bisexuals. Our half-lesbian, half-straight girls. Bisexuals are attracted to both genders (not to be confused with pansexuals, where the basis of their attraction is not on gender at all), and it’s not just women who can identify as bi, but men also. The bisexuals of the universal population are actually a lot more discriminated against (almost as much as transgender/transsexual people) because they don’t just receive prejudice from straight people, but even others who identify as LGBTQ. By most, it is not even believed that bisexuality exists, and this begins with high school teenage girls. Homosexuality has been getting a bit â€Å"trendy† because things that are considered unpopular in our society are actually becoming popular. Not only that, but it’s becoming a big part of our culture as well. Other than that, women know that some men find it attractive when two females are together. So, we have teen girls tossing around labels and claiming bisexualit y to get attention and lust from boys at the drop of a hat, even though they are in no way bisexual. And let’s not forget that, in general, on certain levels females are a bit more intellectual than males. They are more observant, more likely to ask questions, and are more curious about what is going on around them. This is a contributing factor to it as well, because some girls like the idea of how a feminine couple looks or because they have thought about other women in the same way they would think about men. But, even then, it’s not always the case that they are bisexual or lesbian, but in fact, merely interested in trying something new. When you get past the silly stereotypes (like being vegetarian softball players), as well as the legitimate ones, what it gets down to, the very base of lesbianism, is women being attracted to and having feelings for other women. In even more simple terms: love, one of the most human emotions out there. Despite all the categories and attributes, characteristics and traits, that’s what it gets down to. We can put labels on it and psychoanalyze it all we want, but†¦at the end of the day? It’s just about people loving who they want to love.

Monday, December 2, 2019

PLASTIC POLLUTION AND ITS EFFECTS Essays - Dielectrics, Polyolefins

PLASTIC POLLUTION AND ITS EFFECTS Michael Mann Mr. Moran Argumentative Paper 4/14/2017 PLASTIC POLLUTION AND ITS EFFECTS In the present day, most products are entirely or partially made of plastic. This broad usage of plastic material affirms the universal nature and popularity of it as a building material. Plastic offers a wide variety of expedient goods at relatively low prices. However, the use of plastic is not good for the environment and health purposes. It plays a crucial role to augment the pollution, and because of its adverse effects, it is necessary to control the excessive usage of such harmful material. Many substitutes can be used to miti gate the regular exposure to plastic made objects. Paper, cloth bags, card board and glass are a few alternatives, and can be utilized to conserve the energy and control the pollution level. Plastic can be define d as the polymeric material that Alexander Parkes invented in 1855. Initially named " Parkesine " but later was renamed as celluloid. Till then plastic went through a long journey and eventually, Leo Baekeland's invention of Pheno lics in 1909 brought a not eworthy shift in the usage of plastic . At that time, adverse effects of plastic were unknown to its inventors. After t he creation of Phenolic , a new age of plastic emerged , and that altered the mechanical aspects. This shift in trend was greatly celebrated, and plastic became acceptable as the future building material. The chemical structure of plastic elaborates the excessive use of environmentally unfriendly ingredients. ( Meikle , 1995) Fundamentally, most fabrics are comprised of carbon, polymers, hydrogen, nitrogen, oxygen and sulfur. Plastic is cheap, enduring, sturdy and tends to be created in bulk . These charact eristics and plastics enduring nature make it hard to dispose of. In present day, the marketplace of the United States has a significant share of plastic made products that are distributed in different products classification. The following pie chart demonstrates the ratio of various sources of plastic that is in use throughout the United States. Figure 2's pie chart is showing the disposal rate for plastic products in the United States of America. Figure 1: the products made of plastic in The United States Figure 2: Plastic Waste disposal in the US T here is approximately thirty different types of plastics that consumer use daily . Some of them are acknowledged as safe pla stics, and some are known as toxic . The safe plastic or better known as BPA free is recognized as terephthalate and polyethylene that is usually referred as PET as well. This kind of substance is employed to make the clear bottles that can be easily see n in every shop and supermarket. I nitially it was considered safe to use and recycle these PET bottles, but the recent research depi cts substantial traces of DEHP (Knight, 2012) . F urther more, there are two types of polyethylene that are known as High-density polyethylene (HDPE), and the left over is exploited as fiber fills. This texture fills sued in the pillows, jackets and other fabric lining and sleeping bags. Moreover, this type o f substances is suitable for making carpets and furniture's upholstery. Other usages are the rattan weave ou tside furniture and various sorts of dustbin and toys. The other type is Low-density polyethylene (LDPE) which is used to make regular s hopping bags and plastic wraps. S tationary, pots, kitchen accessories, jewelry, footwear, and bottles are a few examples of products that are manufactured with plastic. This excessive use of plastic, in turn, increases the da mages that can be caused by plastic . The e nvironment, human health, economy, marine life, plants, and animals are affected by the usage of plastic material. Plastic is a complicated substance and has a few chemicals in its structure that make it hard to dissolve and therefore impose a dangerous situation to all the environmental factors. The factories that produce plastic and related materials emit a considerable amount of harmful gasses as well as carbon dioxide. D ischarge o f various gasses significant ly impact global warming and affect the habits of different species within that polluted environment . Furthermore, the fumes

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

How to Get a Job with a Liberal Arts Degree

How to Get a Job with a Liberal Arts Degree Are you sick of people laughing when you tell them you’re majoring in Sociology or Spanish Literature? â€Å"Oh, ha, good luck finding a  job,† they say, or â€Å"I guess you want to teach, right?† That way of thinking is outmoded, and there’s no need to turn up your nose at a liberal arts degree. You just need to approach it smartly.  Check out the following graphic  that details all you need to know about following your heart when selecting a college major, where it can lead you, and how to find your perfect job even with a liberal arts degree.

Saturday, November 23, 2019

The Definition of Form in Art

The Definition of Form in Art The term form can mean several different things in art. Form is one of the seven elements of art and connotes a three-dimensional object in space. A  formal analysis of a work of art describes how the elements and principles of artwork together independent of their meaning and the feelings or thoughts they may evoke in the viewer. Finally,  form is also used to describe the physical nature of the artwork, as in metal sculpture, an oil painting, etc.​ When used in tandem with the word art as in art form, it can also mean a medium of artistic expression recognized as fine art or an unconventional medium done so well, adroitly, or creatively as to elevate it to the level of fine art. An Element of Art Form is one of the seven elements of art  which are the visual tools that an artist uses to compose a work of art. In addition, to form, they include line, shape, value, color, texture, and space.  As an Element of Art, form connotes something that is three-dimensional and encloses volume, having length, width, and height, versus shape, which is two-dimensional, or flat. A form is a shape in three dimensions, and, like shapes, can be geometric or organic. Geometric forms are forms that are mathematical, precise, and can be named, as in the basic geometric forms: sphere, cube, pyramid, cone, and cylinder.  A circle becomes a sphere in three dimensions, a square becomes a cube, a triangle becomes a pyramid or cone. Geometric forms are most often found in architecture and the built environment, although you can also find them in the spheres of planets and bubbles, and in the crystalline pattern of snowflakes, for example. Organic forms are those that are free-flowing, curvy, sinewy, and are not symmetrical or easily measurable or named. They most often occur in nature, as in the shapes of flowers, branches, leaves, puddles, clouds, animals, the human figure, etc., but can also be found in the bold and fanciful buildings of the Spanish architect Antoni Gaudi (1852 to 1926) as well as in many sculptures. Form in Sculpture Form is most closely tied to sculpture, since it is a three-dimensional art and has traditionally consisted almost primarily of form, with color and texture being subordinate. Three-dimensional forms can be seen from more than one side. Traditionally forms could be viewed from all sides, called sculpture in-the-round, or in relief, those in which the sculpted elements remain attached to a solid background, including bas-relief, haut-relief, and sunken-relief. Historically sculptures were made in the likeness of someone, to honor a hero or god. The twentieth century broadened the meaning of sculpture, though, heralding the concept of open and closed forms, and the meaning continues to expand today. Sculptures are no longer only representational, static, stationery, forms with a solid opaque mass that has been carved out of stone or modeled out of bronze. Sculpture today may be abstract, assembled from different objects, kinetic, change with time, or made out of unconventional materials like light or holograms, as in the work of renowned artist James Turrell. Sculptures may be characterized in relative terms as closed or open forms. A closed-form has a similar feeling to the traditional form of a solid opaque mass. Even if spaces exist within the form, they are contained and confined. A closed-form has an inward-directed focus on the form, itself, isolated from ambient space. An open form is transparent, revealing its structure, and therefore has a more fluid and dynamic relationship with the ambient space.  Negative space is a major component and activating force of an open form sculpture. Pablo Picasso (1881 to 1973), Alexander Calder (1898 to 1976), and Julio Gonzalez (1876 to 1942) are some artists who created open form sculptures, made from wire and other materials. Henry Moore (1898 to 1986), the great English artist who, along with his contemporary, Barbara Hepworth (1903 to 1975), were the two most important British sculptors in modern art, both revolutionized sculpture by being the first to pierce the form of their biomorphic (biolife, morphicform) sculptures. She did so in 1931, and he did in 1932, noting that â€Å"even space can have form† and that â€Å"a hole can have as much shape meaning as a solid mass.†Ã‚   Form in Drawing and Painting In drawing and painting, the illusion of three-dimensional form is conveyed through the use of lighting and shadows, and the rendering of value and tone. Shape is defined by the outer contour of an object, which is how we first perceive it and begin to make sense of it, but light, value, and shadow help to give an object form and context in space so that we can fully identify it. For example, assuming a single light source on a sphere, the highlight is where the light source hits directly; the mid-tone is the middle value on the sphere where the light does not hit directly; the core shadow is the area on the sphere that the light does not hit at all and is the darkest part of the sphere; the cast shadow is the area on surrounding surfaces that is blocked from the light by the object; reflected highlight is light that is reflected back up onto the object from the surrounding objects and surfaces. With these guidelines as to light and shading in mind, any simple shape can be drawn or painted to create the illusion of a three-dimensional form. The greater the contrast in value, the more pronounced the three-dimensional form becomes. Forms that are rendered with little variation in value appear flatter than those that are rendered with greater variation and contrast. Historically, painting has progressed from a flat representation of form and space to a three-dimensional representation of form and space, to abstraction. Egyptian painting was flat, with the human form presented frontally but with the head and feet in profile. The realistic illusion of form did not occur until the Renaissance along with the discovery of perspective. Baroque artists such as Caravaggio (1571 to 1610), explored the nature of space, light, and the three-dimensional experience of space further through the use of chiaroscuro, the strong contrast between light and dark. The portrayal of the human form became much more dynamic, with chiaroscuro and foreshortening giving the forms a sense of solidity and weight and creating a powerful sense of drama. Modernism freed artists to play with the form more abstractly. Artists such as Picasso, with the invention of Cubism, broke up the form to imply movement through space and time. Analyzing an Artwork When analyzing a work of art, a formal analysis is separate from that of its content or context. A formal analysis means applying the elements and principles of art to analyze the work visually. The formal analysis can reveal compositional decisions that help to reinforce content, the work’s essence, meaning, and the artist’s intent, as well as give clues as to historical context. For example, the feelings of mystery, awe, and transcendence that are evoked from some of the most enduring Renaissance masterpieces, such as the Mona Lisa (Leonardo da Vinci, 1517), The Creation of Adam (Michelangelo, 1512),  the Last Supper (Leonardo da Vinci, 1498) are distinct from the formal compositional elements and principles such as line, color, space, shape, contrast, emphasis, etc., the artist used to create the painting and that contribute to its meaning, effect, and timeless quality. Resources and Further Reading Form, Tate Museum, tate.org.uk/art/art-terms/f/formThe Art of Sculpture, Encyclopedia of Art, visual-arts-cork.com/sculpture.htmThe hole of life, Tate Museum, tate.org.uk/context-comment/articles/hole-of-lifeBarbara Hepworth vs Henry Moore, CultureWhisper, https://www.culturewhisper.com/r/article/preview/3670Works of Antoni Gaudi, http://whc.unesco.org/en/list/320Henry Moore Foundation, https://www.henry-moore.orgBarbara Hepworth, https://barbarahepworth.org.ukJames Turrell, http://jamesturrell.com Resources for Teachers The Elements of Art: Form, Grade Level: 3-4, National Gallery of Art, https://www.nga.gov/content/ngaweb/education/teachers/lessons-activities/elements-of-art/form.htmlShape and Form in Art: Instructional Program for Grades K-4, Teacher’s Guide, http://gettingtoknow.com/wp-content/uploads/shapeinartTG.pdf

Thursday, November 21, 2019

Critical Analysis of Decision-making of a Student Nurse Assessment Essay

Critical Analysis of Decision-making of a Student Nurse Assessment Process - Essay Example This approach adheres to the mentor standards of providing students with constructive feedbacks. Roslyn also appears to have some reservations regarding Gina’s level of competence, a factor which might affect her assessment as a mentor. However, a mentor must also assess a student’s total performance such as the skills, attitudes and behaviors. Finally, Roslyn also considered getting the opinion of her colleagues and team members regarding the performance of Gina, which is a good point. This is so because Gina is also working with other members of the health team staff aside from her mentor Roslyn. The standards of conduct, performance and ethics for nurses and midwives by the Nursing and Midwifery council points out the importance of working with others to help protect and promote the well being of those in their care. Furthermore, the code also states that a mentor is expected to can consult from colleagues when appropriate while practicing fairness and non-discrimina tion. The NMC recognizes that the assessment contribution by others is a part of interprofessional learning. The following issues were raised by her team members—Gina’s tardiness, lack of initiative, poor knowledge of basic concepts and lastly her poor communication skills. In addition to this, the NMC code reiterates that a mentor must facilitate their student’s competency development. However, the resulting document of Gina’s assessment appeared to have only stated a general view about Gina’s performance. This is where the issues arise. While it is true that Roslyn mentioned during the interview the concerns regarding Gina’s communication skills, it was not stated on the final assessment paper itself. The paper on the... This essay stresses that starting off with the conduct of the assessment, the mentor Roslyn initially shows a sense of professionalism by organizing a plan of the interview. According to the Nursing and Midwifery Council mentor standards, mentors are responsible and accountable for co-ordinating and organizing student learning activities. The standards of conduct, performance and ethics for nurses and midwives by the Nursing and Midwifery council points out the importance of working with others to help protect and promote the well being of those in their care. This report makes a conclusion that Roslyn’s final decision made rise to issues of its accuracy and accountability. The good point about Roslyn’s assessment process was that she was able to inform Gina during the midpoint interview on Gina’s achievements and improvements. Her colleagues’ comments and concerns were also laid out during the interview. However, the final document of the assessment decision lacks all the other assessment results such as the colleagues’ comments regarding Gina’s performance and level of knowledge. In other terms, Roslyn had the difficulty of giving Gina an impression of a failing grade. Finally, it was not documented in the final decision about Gina’s need to make communication a further area for development. Therefore, the result of Roslyn’s final assessment paper on Gina’s performance did not exhibit enough fairness and accuracy.

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Health Topic Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Health Topic - Essay Example and consequences of drug abuse in relation to consumption of Methamphetamine, analyze its significance, discuss the cultural similarities and differences, provide statistics and locate the various local and national agencies offering assistance to people under the influence of such harmful drugs. The use and popularity of Methamphetamine increased immediately post the Second World War which was used to as a tool to demote / drive down exhaustion and restrain appetite. The harmful effects and addictive quality of the drug led to it being recognized as a substantial health risk in the 1960s prompting the health agencies to initiate corrective measures and policies to restrict its medicinal usage. During the 1980s the problem of Methamphetamine abuse began to be recognized as a severe health hazard in the United States where the drug was popularized by California based motorcycle gangs named Hells Angels. It was used in a smokable form and was largely imported from the Phillipines (methamphetamine.org, 2008). Methamphetamine is a powerful and highly addictive stimulant that drastically upsets several areas of the central nervous system of a human body. Popularly known as Speed, Meth, chalk, crystal, grass, crank, and ice the drug can be consumed in various forms – smoked, snorted, or orally injected into the body. It resembles a white, odorless and bitter tasting powder which could be dissolved in water or alcohol for consumption. It is easy to make and can be made in surreptitious laboratories from easily available and relatively inexpensive ingredients and sold / purchased at a low cost. These factors are largely responsible for its widespread abuse (NIDA, 2008). The key findings from report on primary methamphetamine admissions to substance abuse treatment, as presented by the Drug and Alcohol Services Information System (DAIS Report, 2008) is mentioned below: In the year 2005 there were over 1.8 million admissions recorded for substance abuse of which

Sunday, November 17, 2019

Internship Paper Essay Example for Free

Internship Paper Essay My role with the _____ County circuit courts varies pretty much daily. Originally I was assigned to circuit court three. As it turns out though, they have had a high school intern coming since the beginning of the semester also, who is interning for a class she has. I believe she comes in three times a week. In addition to this, they have a floater who rotates through all of the courts, there are seven, so they have more than enough help in their court. Most days when I go in, I start in court three, and then end up going to court services to help the ladies out there. When I am in court three, I basically do the filing that has accumulated throughout the day. Depending on the day, and if the other intern or the floater has been there, there might be anywhere from ten minutes to an hours worth of filing to do. After this is done, I might pull the mail, meaning pull any files that correspond with mail the court has received. These might be warrants, certified mail, requests to continue, follow up letters referencing a court case, etc. A few times, when there has been a computer available, I have been able to enter information into the JUSTIS system, mostly through certified mail cards. Sometimes I would enter information for small claims cases, and then if the attorney or plaintiff/defendant would need copies of the information, I would mail those out. I would say the majority of my time spent at the courts was spent in court services though. Here I would do a lot of work for Mary, who is in charge of juvenile cases. A few weeks ago, I did many spreadsheets with data about juveniles who were either in detention centers, or placed in treatment centers, ranging from 1998-2002. She has to have record of this and needed the material in an organized data format, so I did a lot of that. Ive also made many calls to agencies to see their per diem rates, or rates for those placed in those facilities per day that they stay. Another project I have done for Mary was tracking her mileage as she has traveled from facility to facility to visit the juveniles placed there. These facilities are located in various other places around the state, so  she often has to travel long distances to make these trips, and needs to track her mileage for record and compensation. These records also went back to I believe 1998 or 1999, and were recorded to the present date, so there was much tracking I had to do to figure out her total mileage per day, and then per year. Ive also worked several times with Lisa helping her. She is in charge of jurors and jury duty. She sends out notices once a month to those who are being called for jury duty for that month. I have helped her sort these names, put together the notices, and get them sent out to the potential jurors. This is a big job, as when it comes time to do it, she usually has boxes and boxes of notices needing to be sent out. Something else I have done for court services would be to take their daily outgoing mail and run it through the postage machine to be sent out. This must happen about 5-6 times a day would be my guess. I have only done this a few times, but each time I have gone back, there was a replenished supply to be sent out. Also, sometimes I would take documents that needed to be mailed out from circuit court three to court services and put them in their corresponding lawyers mail slots, or send them out with the outgoing mail. Also, a few times I have had to take packages or documents for someone in court services down to the courthouse. I have really enjoyed working in the court system, both in circuit court three and in court services. As a criminal justice major I think it has been a really good experience for me. I plan on graduating in December, and am hoping to go into Federal Investigations. Another interesting aspect of the internship where I did it was that I got to work somewhat along side of a fellow criminal justice major that I have known since our freshman year. She and I have had every criminal justice class together except for P100. We both applied for the internship, but never knew we would end up in the same place, since there were quite a few options of places to work! Also, my resident assistant from freshman year also works part time in the court system, so I was kind of reunited with  her, which was quite a coincidence, considering how big this campus is! Last page: The last page of the paper is supposed to be additional comments about our good experiences and shortcomings of the internship. My good experiences would definitely be the people that I met and worked with there. They are a wonderful group of people, from the few I already knew, my fellow CJUS major and my R.A from freshman year, to everyone that I got to know and work with there. And Mary was wonderful especially. I felt like I could talk to her about school stuff since she graduated from IU also, whether it be to gripe about classes or get advice about the major/future plans. I think the shortcoming I can think of would be that I ended up being an intern for circuit court three, not because I didnt like it, just for the fact that they already had a high school intern and a floater, so there really was not much for me to do there at all. I literally would go in court three for about a half hour or so and then spend the rest of my time in court services. Honestly I wish I could have been a general intern for court services or a second intern to Mary. Court services was where I spent the majority of my time and I loved it. I also was told when I did my orientation that I would probably get to sit in on court a few times and observe. To date I have not been able to do that. I dont know if the time hasnt worked out for when Ive been working, or if there just hasnt been much Id be able to sit in on. I remember Mary telling me that court three did have drug court, which I have heard them talk about a few times, and I would have loved to sit in on this, because the Drug Enforcement Agency is one of the Federal agencies Im very interested in. I would have definitely liked to participate in this aspect more than I was able to. I would say this has definitely been my toughest semester. I ended up dropping a class early in the semester because I was trying to take 19 hours, including the internship, so it was really even more since I had to  dedicate 10 hours a week to being there. At the beginning of the semester I thought I could handle all 19 hours and the internship, but I really felt like I didnt have time to even sleep, let alone study, so something had to go. I was literally booked solid all week as I worked most of the day Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays I had class from 8-5 and then Wednesdays I would work all day also. And while I didnt have classes on Fridays, I worked in my hometown at the job I have been working at for the past few summers; they let me come in part time and holidays so I can make some money. It was hard to juggle school, the internship, and my family situation this semester, but Im glad I was given the opportunity for the internship, I really do believe it was beneficial.

Friday, November 15, 2019

Free College Admissions Essays: What I Want From College :: College Admissions Essays

What I Want From College    It has always been my greatest ambition to become a college graduate. In order to achieve that goal I have strived to cultivate the various talents with which I have been blessed.    The first step is to fully appreciate the professors and their dedication to passing on not just knowledge from a text, but the intimate knowledge of helping young men such as myself become accountable and successful contributors to society. I don't think enough students take the opportunity to tap into the personal knowledge that many professors offer their students. They have traveled the road we are attempting to navigate. It is only prudent to take advantage of that fact. Many students shy away from personal time with their professors. Yet, this is the best way to show the professor that you are engaged in the classroom. It sets you apart from other students and offers additional information that many professors cannot cover inside of the classroom.    Secondly, I hope to gain a greater sense of solidarity, recreation and release with the African American community. Having attended a predominantly white high school where less than 5% of the student body was African American, I feel it would be a wonderful experience to take advantage of the support that is offered by fellow students. We live in a diverse society and it is necessary to learn to function among others. There is nothing like the experience of communing among ourselves in order to gain a collective confidence in our ability to achieve our goals. I also hope to actively contribute to that community as well. I also hope to gain a greater sense of economic and social responsibility. By being an active part of my college community via employment and civic activities in the community, I have the opportunity to be a more independent adult. At the same time I am gaining experience that will only enhance my abilities to be employed and to be a positive and productive member of any community I join in the future. It is important to also contribute to those in the community that have not been offered the same opportunities I have. As a future teacher, it is my feeling that I have a personal responsibility in passing on the desire to learn to others. The seriousness of that task warrants my endless pursuit of a better understanding of that commitment.

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Abstract Art

Abstract art uses a visual language of form, color and line to create a composition which may exist with a degree of independence from visual references in the world. Western art had been, from the Renaissance up to the middle of the 19th century, underpinned by the logic of perspective and an attempt to reproduce an illusion of visible reality. The arts of cultures other than the European had become accessible and showed alternative ways of describing visual experience to the artist. By the end of the 19th century many artists felt a need to create a new kind of art which would encompass the fundamental changes taking place in technology, science and philosophy. The sources from which individual artists drew their theoretical arguments were diverse, and reflected the social and intellectual preoccupations in all areas of Western culture at that time. Abstract art, nonfigurative art, nonobjective art, and nonrepresentational art are loosely related terms. They are similar, although perhaps not of identical meaning. Abstraction indicates a departure from reality in depiction of imagery in art. This departure from accurate representation can be only slight, or it can be partial, or it can be complete. Abstraction exists along a continuum. Even art that aims for verisimilitude of the highest degree can be said to be abstract, at least theoretically, since perfect representation is likely to be exceedingly elusive. Artwork which takes liberties, altering for instance color and form in ways that are conspicuous, can be said to be partially abstract. Total abstraction bears no trace of any reference to anything recognizable. In geometric abstraction, for instance, one is unlikely to find references to naturalistic entities. Figurative art and total abstraction are almost mutually exclusive. But figurative and representational (or realistic) art often contains partial abstraction. Both geometric abstraction and lyrical abstraction are often totally abstract. Among the very numerous art movements that embody partial abstraction would be for instance fauvism in which color is conspicuously and deliberately altered vis-a-vis reality, and cubism, which blatantly alters the forms of the real life entities depicted.

Sunday, November 10, 2019

Dow Chemical Case

Dow Chemical Case Question 1 Polyethylene is the world’s most widely used plastic. Polyethylene plastic’s principal application was in packaging, from trash bags to milk jugs. It was widely used in the manufacture of everything from trash bags, picnic cutlery and garbage pails, to plastic toys. Polyethylene also replaced glass, wood, and metal in certain applications. There were three types of polyethylene, Low-density polyethylene, High density polyethylene and Low linear density polyethylene. Polyethylene produced from ethylene. Ethylene is produced from oil or natural gas. Ethylene plants separated either naphtha molecules (derived from crude oil) or ethane molecules (derived from natural gas). The ethylene derived from this process was used to produce polyethylene. The critical success factors in this business were capital intensive and economies of scale. Polyethylene was a global commodity product and pricing worldwide typically fell into a narrow band. The demand for polyethylene was large because it was the world’s most widely used plastic and polyethylene customers were typically small and medium-sized plastic processing companies. The big Risks in the industry: * The raw material risk – Cracking naphtha (the raw material derived from crude oil) required much more energy, manufacturing intensity, and equipment than cracking ethane (derived from natural gas). Supply of primary materials and electricity are crucial to success of polyethylene production. * Cost risk – large plant sizes and the need for economies of scale rendered the ethylene industry highly capital intensive. A plant for cracking ethane was estimated to hundreds of millions and the cost for a plant for cracking naphtha is double. Capacity additions or reductions could significantly affect balance of supply and demand, influencing capacity utilization rates, prices, and profit margins. * Ethylene profitability was tightly links to its global operating rate. The ethylene business links to oil companies, governments, pure chemical companies, conglomerates, private investors, and joint ventures. * Competition of polyethylene industry in Argentina and in the global market. The government operator was directly or indirectly financing capital – intensive ethylene plants in order to stimulate downstream business. Some of countries, the government contribute the investment. * The margins for producers of ethylene and first-order derivatives (mostly plastics) were highly correlated because the producers for them were highly integrated. Question 2 The stages of the project: * Stage 1: involved taking control of PBB, which comprised the ethylene cracker and polyethylene plant, and then upgrading the facilities in order to make them internationally competitive * Stage 2: involved acquiring Polisur’s two polyethylene plants * Stage 3: involved building a new ethylene cracker and a polyethylene plant These three stages are closely related to each other. The next stage would be reached only if the previous stages achieved, and the followed stages ensure the success of the previous stages. Acquiring PBB offers Dow the opportunity to enter Argentina market, and this is the first step for Dow to take over control of Bahia Blanca’s polyethylene activities. Dow is bidding not only for PBB in the privatization, but also an overall plan for the development of Dow’s polyethylene business in Argentina. Dow will decide on the price to bid for PBB in the upcoming privatization, the price is based on the valuation of the entire project (stage 1, 2 and 3). The three stages are one big project. Dow’s bid for PBB should not be based solely on the value of Stage 1 of the project. Gaining control of PBB would be the first step in the project. But taking all the factors discussed above into consideration, Dow should value all the 3 stages in order to bid on the PBB project. Dow believed that it had the opportunity to become the number-one player in the Latin American polyethylene industry. To achieve this goal, Dow would also have to acquire Polisur’s two polyethylene plants (stage 2) and expand existing capacity. The expansion of its polyethylene capacity in Bahia Blanca would require the company to build a world-class competitive cracker (stage 3). Doing so would nearly triple PBB’s ethylene capacity. Therefore, Dow had to not only consider what to bid for PBB in the privatization, but also develop an overall plan for the development of Dow’s polyethylene business. Dow had to incorporate the terminal value of each stage of the project. Question 3: The followings are the arguments that support the acquisition of PBB: 1. The whole project will increase Dow shareholder’s wealth. As a public company, the first aim of the management team is to increase the shareholder wealth. The project proposed by the management team is definitely consistent with this goal. And bidding on the PBB is the first stage of the whole project. The exact increase in shareholders’ equity may be various at this point as it depends on lots of other factors ( we will discuss the risk of valuation thought the whole case. , but in general, the management team is confident in the future outlook. 2. The other important strategic purpose of acquiring PBB is that it is the first stage towards consolidating all Bahia Blanca’s polyethylene activity under Dow’s control. The 3-stage project will make Dow to be the leading company of polyethylene in Argentina, even in Latin America because of its MNC background. This will have a long term positive influence in Dow’s stock price as well as shareholders’ equity. 3. Also, as indicated in the case, the demand of polyethylene will increase in the next couple years. Argentina is an emerging market, which is facing a rapid transformation. Dow’s vice president anticipated continued improvement in standards of living, which will lead to increase demand for polyethylene in Argentina, as well as in Latin America. The expected growth in polyethylene demand made PBB a potentially attractive acquisition. 4. PBB right now is a government controlled complex which is going to privatize. For Dow, it is a perfect opportunity to build long term relationship with Argentina government. It will give Dow more opportunities in the market of Argentina and Latin America. Question 4: The followings are the mains risks of the project for Dow beyond the general industry risks discussed in Question 1: 1. Country risk. Argentina is an emerging market. It is widely agreed that when we estimate the risk of emerging market by using the traditional model like CAMP, the result also unfavorable. Some reasons are the market is highly concentrated and integrated. And also the country risk cannot be diversified. So it brings the uncertainty to Dow’s valuation. 2. Political risk. Political risk is part of country risk. It is identified as the potentially adverse impact a country’s environment has on a firm’s future cash flows. And it will affect Dow’s future expected returns and valuation measures. If there is some major political unrest in Argentina, the government expropriates PBB, Dow will face a significant loss. Also, if the Argentina government default on its debt, Dow would face the bad debt which is an huge cost and will drag down the expected cash flows. 3. Economics risk The privatization in Argentina was the progress to control the fiscal problems, like hyperinflation, stagflation and huge fiscal deficits. As an emerging country, Argentina had not developed a healthy financial market within the country. The unstable economy would lead to a huge possibility of default. Another possible aspect was the economics risk of the world. If there was an economics downturn, the huge investment of the project would worth less and Dow will facing difficulties to rise equity to finance the project. 4. Unexpected risk: (1) Unexpected shortage of energy. The industry is really energy intensive. If there is a energy shortage such as the decreased supply of oil, the whole project will face negative return. (2) Unexpected rise in variable cost, such as transportation cost. The unexpected rise in variable cost will have negative impact on Dow’s cash flow. The decrease of expected cash flow will lead the decrease value of the project. (3) There are 3 stages of the whole project. If one of them did not work well, the overall goal will be affected and the whole project would have the risk of failure. Question 5: Given in the case that Dow’s cost of capital for similar U. S. based projects is 10%, thus we chose to use NPV to evaluate the different stages of the project, by discounting each year’s expected cash flow (Exhibit 9, 10 & 11) to the base year-1995. Stage 1 Valuation Given in the case, Dow is bidding on the sale of 51% of PBB, therefore, if we calculate the Present Value of the cash flow, Dow should get 51%. Dow’s total investments for PBB Ethylene cracker and PBB Polyethylene cracker between 1996 and 2000 are $128. 9 million and $28 million in Exhibit 7 from the case. If we compare these figures with Exhibit 9A & 9B investment numbers between 1996 and 2000, they are the same (shown in Table 1); this means that the cash flow of PBB in exhibit 9A is the cash flow after only deducting the investment from Dow. So, we add back Dow’s investment to get the actual cash flow of PBB. Since Dow’s share in PBB is 51%, it gets 51% of PBB’s cash flow and we discount the cash flow. Next we calculate the sum of Present Value of Dow’s investment in each year, and subtract it from Dow’s 51% share in PBB. This number reflects the actual net cash flow been distributed to Dow. The followings summarize the steps of the thinking process: Step 1: Add back Dow’s investment to PBB’s cash flow, this gives the total future cash flow to be distributed among Dow (Dow owns 51% of PBB) and other owners. Step 2: Find the PV of total future cash flows Step 3: Distribute the 51% of the PV of total future cash flow to Dow Step 4: Deduct PV of Dow’s investment from Step 3 The value of Stage 1 is $345. 71 million as shown in Table 2. Stage 2 Valuation In Stage 2, we took polyethylene CFs directly from Exhibit 10, and discount them by appropriate discount rate, and summing up these PV of the cash flows we get the value of Stage 2, $399. 76 million. Another point worth mentioning is the calculation of the terminal value in 2010. Given in the case, the growth is 3. % constant for the project, we took the cash flow in 2010, which is $82 million; multiplied it by (1+g)/(k-g), and discounted it by 16 years to get the present value. Stage 3 Valuation Stage 3 involves building a new ethylene cracker and a polyethylene plant. We summed up the total cash flows of them and find PV of the cash flows in each year. The total of all the PV of the cash flows is the value of Stage 3, $ 993. 69 mill ion shown in Table 4. Now we have the value for each stage, and we get the total of the project, it is worth $1739. 16 million with the value of Stage 1, Stage 2 and Stage 3 are $345. 1 million, $399. 763 million and $993. 690 million respectively, under the assumption that each stage is successful just like Dow has planned. Question 6: There are two ways to do Discounted Cash Flow analysis in an international context. We can adjust the discount rate by adding a country’s political risk premium or, adjust the cash flow of the project. In this question, we will discuss the appropriate method of the project’s discount rate. In a country, the higher risk that investors perceived, the higher discount rate that should be applied to the project’s cash flows. The risks we are talking about are not diversifiable. Since November 1995, the Convertibility Law tied the peso to the U. S. dollar, even thought the market thinks the fixed exchange rate would last for several years, but as the executives of Dow, Virgnar and Marcer need to consider the possibility of future crises. Uncertainty about future currency thus will increase the discount rate of project in Argentina, which means that Dow’s cost of capital is increased. Possible impact of government policies relevant to foreign investments is another issue, example increased tax rate. This will leave Dow with a lower investment return than before. In practice it is often difficult to quantify the likelihood and impact of political risk on international investments; given US and Argentine Yields in the case, we can adjust the discount rate by adding the sovereign yield spread between U. S. and Argentina. The idea is that the bond spreads between two countries with same maturity reflects country risk. The country with the higher yield in this case is Argentina; it offers approximately 10% more than the U. S’ yield shown in Exhibit 12. The reason behind that is Argentina has a higher country risk than U. S. , so it has to offer a higher yield in order to compensate the investors for taking additional risks. Therefore Dow should take these additional risks into consideration when evaluating the project. The adjusted discount rate for the project should be 20%, 10% ( cost of capital for similar U. S projects from Q5) + 10% (Argentina’s country risk) and this change in the discount rate will have a big impact on the value of each stage in the project which we will examine later. There are two major advantages of adjusting the discount rate by adding the sovereign yield spread. One of the advantages is the countries’ bond yields are easy to find, observe and access, investors can easily calculate the country risk by subtracting the two bond yields. Another advantage is that the yield of bond is forward-looking, it does not only incorporate today’s condition, also the yield reflects the market’s future expectation of a country’s risk and return so it is a good representation of cost of equity in a particular country. Salomon Smith Barney model is similar to the model that we just described, but with additional inputs and refinements. If we have more information from S&P country sovereign ratings, country ratings, and macro variables, we could adjust discount rate for the project more accurately. Furthermore, the political risk premium that we can add to the discount rate can be scaled up or down based on subjective scores for Dow’s access to capital, susceptibility of the project investment to Argentina’s political risk and the importance of the investment for Dow. Therefore, the more relevant information we have, the more accurate discount rate we can construct to help evaluate the project. Question 7 The calculation process for is basically the same as in question 5, except here we use the cost of capital 20% instead of 10% to discount expected cash flow. Calculation shows in Table 5 (in Million U$). The project worth is $464. 734 which about only 20% of the project value if it located in US. The largely decrease in project value is due to the higher country risk in Argentina than in the US. The higher country risk was reflected in the higher discount rates which lower the present value of the cash flow. In stage 1, the present value of expected cash flow (CFs) is 160. 32 which is 54% lower than the stage 1 value in question 5. The percentage of decrease is lower than the total project value’s decrease, since most of the value in stage 1 was generate from early years cash flow. The country risk in the short run is lower than in the long run. Because in the long run there are more chances for uncertainty events to happened. In stage 2, the present value of CFs is 194. 81 and it is 51% lower than the project value in US which also less than the percentage decrease of the total project value. And this is due to the same reason as in stage 1. In stage 3, the value is $109. 837 which is 89% lower than the question 5’s value. The significant decreasing value is due to the value of stage 3 is mainly from terminal value. Since there are higher country risk and more uncertainty in the long run, stage 3’s long run cash flows ( include terminal value) are heavily discounted which lead to low present value. Question8 Dow should bid for PBB no matter the project is in US or Argentine, since the total project values and stage 1 values are both positive in these two countries. Because Dow is an American company, the shareholders care about the US returns. The Project cash flows and stage 1cash flows are discounted by the cost of capital in US and get positive present values, which mean the PPB will increase Dow’s shareholder wealth. To determining how much Dow should bid, the company should aware that there are some requirements made by the Argentina government. First, the government set the minimum accepted price is 150million U$, which is the lowest range for Dow’s bid. Second, the government requires the bidder to have a statement of net worth of at least 5 billion U$. While, Dow has two other competitors Copesul and Perez also want to bid PPB. However, Copesul only has net worth $929,538,000 and Perez has net worth $1,461,000,000. Even if Copesul and Perez combine to bid PPB, their total net worth around $2,391,000,000 will be smaller than the $5 billion requirement. Therefore, Dow should not been threatened by Copesul and Perez’s bid, and they should not affect Dow’s biding strategy. Therefore, for the bidding price: Value of the bid= Value of (stage 1+2+3)-cost of PBB- cost of Polisur The cost of stage 3 is already included in the value of stage 3. In question 3, we obtain the Value of (stage 1+2+3) equal to$464. 734 million. Since the Value of the bid>0, then cost of (PBB+ Polisur) < $464. 734million According to the government requirement, Dow could bid PBB for $150 million, then their higher range for Dow’s bid should be $ 314. 734 million ($464. 734million- $150 million). Table 1: Table 2: Table 3: Table 4: Table 5:

Friday, November 8, 2019

Definition and Examples of Universal Grammar

Definition and Examples of Universal Grammar Universal grammar is the theoretical or hypothetical system of categories, operations, and principles shared by all human languages and considered to be innate. Since the 1980s, the term has often been capitalized.  The term is also known as  Universal Grammar Theory. Linguist  Noam Chomsky  explained,  [U]niversal grammar is taken to be the set of properties, conditions, or whatever that constitute the initial state of the language learner, hence the basis on which knowledge of a language develops. (Rules and Representations. Columbia University Press, 1980) The concept is connected to the ability  of  children to be able to learn their native language. Generative grammarians  believe that the human species evolved a genetically  universal grammar  common to all peoples and that the variability in modern languages is basically on the surface only, wrote  Michael Tomasello. (Constructing a Language: A Usage-Based Theory of Language Acquisition. Harvard University Press, 2003) And Stephen Pinker elaborates thusly: In cracking the code of language...childrens minds must be constrained to pick out just the right kinds of generalizations from the  speech  around them....It is this line of reasoning that led Noam Chomsky to propose that  language acquisition  in children is the key to understanding the nature of  language,  and that children must be equipped with an innate  Universal Grammar: a set of plans for the grammatical machinery that powers all human languages. This idea sounds more controversial than it is (or at least more controversial than it should be) because the logic of  induction  mandates that children make  some  assumptions about how language works in order for them to succeed at learning a language at all. The only real controversy is what these assumptions consist of: a blueprint for a specific kind of rule system, a set of abstract principles, or a mechanism for finding simple patterns (which might also be used in learning things other than language). ( The Stuff of Thought. Viking, 2007) Universal grammar is not  to be confused with universal language, noted Elena Lombardi, or with the  deep structure of language, or even with grammar itself (The Syntax of Desire, 2007).  As Chomsky has observed, [U]niversal grammar is not  a grammar, but rather a theory of grammars, a kind of metatheory or schematism for grammar (Language and Responsibility, 1979). History and Background The concept of a  universal grammar  (UG) has been traced to the observation of Roger Bacon, a 13th-century Franciscan friar, and philosopher, that all languages are built upon a common grammar. The expression was popularized in the 1950s and 1960s by Chomsky and other linguists. Components that are considered to be universal include the notion that words can be classified into different groups, such as being nouns or verbs and that sentences follow a particular structure. Sentence structures may be different between languages, but each language has some kind of framework so that speakers can understand each other vs. speaking gibberish. Grammar rules, borrowed words, or idioms of a particular language by definition are not universal grammar. Challenges and Criticisms Of course, any theory in an academic setting will have challenges, comments, and criticisms by others in the field; such as it is with peer review and the academic world, where people build on the body of knowledge through writing academic papers and publishing their opinions. Swarthmore College linguist K. David Harrison noted in The Economist,  I and many fellow linguists would estimate that we only have a detailed scientific description of something like 10% to 15% of the worlds languages, and for 85% we have no real documentation at all. Thus it seems premature to begin constructing grand theories of universal grammar. If we want to understand universals, we must first know the particulars. (Seven Questions for K. David Harrison. Nov. 23, 2010) And Jeff Mielke finds some aspects of  universal  grammar theory to be illogical: [T]he  phonetic  motivation for  Universal Grammar is extremely  weak. Perhaps the most compelling case that can be made is that phonetics, like  semantics, is part of the grammar and that there is an implicit assumption that if  the syntax  is rooted in Universal Grammar, the rest should be too. Most of the evidence for UG is not related to  phonology, and phonology has more of a guilt-by-association status with respect to innateness. (The Emergence of Distinctive Features. Oxford University Press, 2008) Iain McGilchrist disagrees with Pinkner and took the side of children learning a language just through imitation, which is a behaviorist approach, as opposed to the Chomsky theory of the poverty of the stimulus:   [I]t is uncontroversial that the existence of a universal grammar such as Chomsky conceived it is highly debatable. It remains remarkably speculative 50 years after he posited it, and is disputed by many important names in the field of linguistics. And some of the facts are hard to square with it. Languages across the world, it turns out, use a very wide variety of syntax to structure sentences. But more importantly, the theory of universal grammar is not convincingly compatible with the process revealed by developmental psychology, whereby children actually acquire language in the real world. Children certainly evince a remarkable ability to grasp spontaneously the conceptual and psycholinguistic shapes of speech, but they do so in a far more holistic, than analytic, way. They are astonishingly good imitators- note, not copying machines, but imitators. (The Master and His Emissary: The Divided Brain and the Making of the Western World. Yale University Press, 2009)

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

African American History and Women Timeline 1970-1979

African American History and Women Timeline 1970-1979 [Previous] [Next] 1970 Cheryl Adrienne Brown, Miss New York, became the first African American contestant in the Miss America pageant(January 14) Diana Ross performs for the last time with the Supremes, and introduces Jean Terrell as her replacement with the group(August 7) Angela Davis, radical black activist and philosopher, was arrested as a suspected conspirator in the abortive attempt to free George Jackson from a courtroom in Marin County, Californiafirst issue of  Essence  published, a magazine targeted at black women 1971 (January 11) Mary J. Blige born (singer)Beverly Johnson appears on the cover of  Glamour, the first African American woman to be featured that way by a major fashion magazineThe Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) founded, an evolution from the Democratic Select Committee founded in 1969. Shirley Chisholm  was the only woman among the first 13 members. 1972 Mahalia Jackson died (gospel singer)Shirley Chisholm became the first African American woman candidate for President, with more than 150 delegate votes at the 1972 Democratic conventionBarbara Jordan elected to Congress, the first African American woman from a former Confederate state to be elected to the HouseYvonne Braithwaite Burke elected to Congress, the first black woman elected to the House from CaliforniaPatricia Roberts Harris became chair of the Democratic National Convention; Yvonne Braithwaite Burke was co-chair of the conventionHaitian boat people begin arriving in FloridaAngela Davis acquitted in California by an all-white jury  of charges from a 1970 shootout(January 27) Mahalia Jackson died (singer)(July 7) Lisa Leslie born (basketball player) 1973 Eleanor Holmes Norton and others found the National Black Feminist Organization.Marion Wright Edelson creates the Childrens Defense Fund.Cardiss Collins elected to Congress from a Chicago district, succeeding her husband 1974 Shirley Chisholm became the first African American woman elected to Congress   Alberta Williams King, Martin Luther King, Jr.s mother, and a deacon, were killed during services at Ebenezer Baptist Church 1975 Mary Bush Wilson becomes first African American woman board chair of the NAACP (the first chair, Mary White Ovington, was a white woman)Joanne Little acquitted of murder charges - she had stabbed a jailer with an ice pick to avoid sexual assaultLeontyne Price awarded Italys Order of Merit(April 12) Josephine Baker died of a stroke 1976 Barbara Jordan was the first woman and the first African American to give the keynote address at a national convention of the Democratic PartyJanie L. Mines becomes the first African  American woman to enter the United States Naval Academy at Annapolis.Clara Stanton Jones becomes the first African Amerian elected as President of the American Library AssociationPresident Jimmy Carter appoints Patricia Harris as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, the first African American woman selected for the cabinet.Unita Blackwell elected mayor of Mayersville, becoming the first black woman mayor in Mississippigymnast Dominque Dawes born (won three Olympic medals)(February 26) Florence Ballard dies of a heart attack, age 32.   She was one of the original Supremes. 1977 first African American woman ordained as an Episcopal priest: Pauli Murraythe Daughters of the American Revolution admitted the first African American member, Karen Farmer, who traced her ancestry back to William HoodMabel Murphy Smythe appointed as ambassador to Cameroon(September 1) Ethel Waters died, age 80 (singer, actress) 1978 Faye Wattleton became president of the Planned Parenthood Federation the first woman and the first African American to hold that positionUnited States Postal Service issued a stamp honoring Harriet Tubman.Toni Morrison received the National Book Critics AwardJill Brown, flying for Texas International Airlines, is the first black female pilot for any commercial airline(March 29) Tina Turner divorces Ike Turner(June 28) in University of California v. Backke, Supreme Court limits federal affirmative action 1979 Hazel Winifred Johnson became the first African American woman appointed as a general in the US ArmyPatricia Harris, who had served as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, was appointed by President Carter as secretary of health, education and welfareBethune Museum and Archives established in Washington, DCLois Alexander opens the Black Fashion Museum in Harlem [Previous] [Next] [1492-1699] [1700-1799] [1800-1859] [1860-1869] [1870-1899] [1900-1919] [1920-1929] [1930-1939] [1940-1949] [1950-1959] [1960-1969] [1970-1979] [1980-1989] [1990-1999] [2000-] Janie L. Mines becomes the first African  American woman to enter the United States Naval Academy at Annapolis.

Sunday, November 3, 2019

America 1945 1960 Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

America 1945 1960 - Essay Example It was a time of victorious jubilation for everyone, except those who came back â€Å"home† to segregation and discrimination. The returning African American soldier returned home to find that his most dreaded unwanted guest â€Å"Jim Crow†, had not packed up and moved to other shores. With the non-extinguishing of Jim Crow, they were still mandated to separate facilities for travel, lodging, eating, and drinking, schooling, worship, housing, and in all other aspects of social and economic life .Moreover, though they had fought and many died, the armed forces was not anymore accommodating of the African American civil rights, as was society-at-large. African American veterans returning to the south after military service in World War II were often unwilling to be subjected to the humiliation and degradation of segregation and discrimination in the land which they served to shed their blood. Some white, especially in the south, felt that these veterans needed to be terro rized into submission, whether they were wore the nation’s uniform or not.

Friday, November 1, 2019

How active a role did the laity play in the affairs of the Essay

How active a role did the laity play in the affairs of the pre-Reformation parish - Essay Example On the other side of the dramatic plot is the Protestant circle, which included Thomas Cromwell, Archbishop Cranmer, Anne Boleyn and her family. Anne’s outspoken support for protestant reform and her open desire for a break with Rome to legitimize the annulment of Henry’s marriage to Catherine cast her in the center of a bitter contest between those who traditionally held power and those who craved to wrest it. Had Anne born Henry a son and heir the outcome may have been different; however, the deformed son was premature and stillborn, Anne was convicted of high treason and subsequently executed, and Jane Seymour became the new queen. However, though an effort was made, Henry had not been able to make amends with the French, was excommunicated by Rome, and faced the threat of invasion by the combined might of the new alliance between France and the Holy Roman Empire As a result of Henry’s excommunication, the pope absolved all Catholics from obedience to him. Henry thus faced at home a divided populace with the apparent legitimate right to disobey him, as well as threat from outside British shores. Realizing this, Cromwell moved into action. He formed alliances with the protestant German princes, and promoted Protestantism at home, with apparent force and cruelty, by the dissolution of monasteries and by the issuance of injunctions for regulating individual parish churches.1 The laity, thus caught the crux of a religious and political paradigm shift that was to have profound repercussions on the daily lives of ordinary citizens. This discussion seeks to describe the role of the laity before and on the eve of the Reformation, in order to gain a more enlightened understanding of the implications of the day’s political upheavals in the life of the common man. During the period preceding the Reformation, community life, particularly parish

Wednesday, October 30, 2019

Should Illegal Immigrants be given Drivers Licenses Essay

Should Illegal Immigrants be given Drivers Licenses - Essay Example Additional arguments in favor of issuing illegal immigrants with driver’s license are founded on the concern of record keeping. It is suggested that a viable way of keeping records of the number of illegal immigrants in the country involves issuing them with these licenses. Apparently, driver’s license captures the details of residence, thus reducing the challenge of locating or accounting for illegal immigrants. Allowing the immigrants the right to have a driver’s license makes it possible for the government to understand the dynamics of US population. Such information would be of help in the development of both administrative and governance policies. Advocates of the proposal to issue illegal immigrants with driver’s license further base their arguments on the safety of the drivers. A driver’s license allows the owner to access insurance cover. Immigrants that have been denied the right to have a driver’s license are, subsequently, unable t o access insurance cover. Such implies that their vehicles are uninsured. The observation further allows for the reflection of the dangers extended to the public from illegal immigrants that drive without a license. It is important to understand the level of the danger presented to the public by the simple act of not issuing these immigrants with a license as a measure of promoting good governance. The supporters of licensing the illegal immigrant drivers challenge the basis upon which the anti-terror policy promotes the considered unfairness.

Monday, October 28, 2019

The Effect Of Games On Vocabulary Learning

The Effect Of Games On Vocabulary Learning Learning another language has always been problematic for learners. How and what skills should be learned has been a matter of inquiry. It is true that integrating language skills and component is against the nature of language and language should learn holistically, but some components of language, like vocabulary, are the building block of learning. Vocabulary learning and teaching has had a long history in second language learning field, sometimes it has been the focus of attention and sometimes its margin; but it has never been absent. About six hundred experimental reports published over the last twenty -five years, indicates the significant role of vocabulary in L2 learning (Brown, Rodgers, 2002). In addition, different scholars mentioned the central role of vocabulary; Vocabulary knowledge is crucial to reading comprehension(Mosher, 1999, p.9;cited in klepper,2003,p.4); Mastering English vocabulary is crucial for ESL student to become language competent (Avila Sadoski, 1996; cited in Gaudio, 2003, p.18); Without grammar very little can be conveyed, without vocabulary nothing can be conveyed( David Wilkins; cited in Thornbury, 2002, p.13) . If you spend most of your time studying grammar, your English will not improve very much. You will see most improvement if you learn more words and expressions. You can say very little wi th grammar, but you can say almost anything with words (Dellar Hocking; cited in Thornbury, 2002, p.13). L2 learners are the ones who struggling with learning and the first weapon used in this struggle is dictionary (Krashen, 1997; citied in Brown, Rodgers, 2002) so it is evident that they are more aware of vocabulary role than scholars and researchers. Sometimes, I am a lack of useful vocabularies to express my opinions. And too often my speaking is hard caused by missing word; these are how learners mentioned their needs of vocabulary in Thornburys book (Thornbury, 2002, p.13). What has been done in this field, remains no doubt in the importance of vocabulary on both scholars and learners side. However, which approach to take in order to make vocabulary teaching more effective, is still a question. According to scholars, learning vocabulary through games is one effective and interesting way that can be applied in any classrooms( Thanh Huyen, Thu Nga,2003 , Learning Vocabulary Through Games,para.1) Using games as an educational tool is not something new and had a long history in language teaching. Games were used for more repetition in Audio lingual; they were introduced in Desuggestopedia as role-play activities or other activities aiming to reduce language barriers; most activities in TPR were game like ones to insert fun in classroom environment; and they found to be handy in Cooperative language teaching, in order to maximize the learner- learner interaction. This long story may prove the effectiveness of games; however, what is the role of games in vocabulary learning? Moreover, do games truly have educational value? To answer this question systematically, as Klepper suggested (2003), to form a basis for researching the effectiveness of games used in vocabulary instruction (p.4), it would be useful to review researches done in related idea; like the effect of games on student retention and memory, and motivation. To start, it would be a good idea to review games and memory in vocabulary teaching and learning. One of the teachers desires is to see their students retain what have been taught. To realize this wish, learners should memorize and recall the information in this field (vocabulary) accurately. Frequently asked question by student is how to memorize and recall what they have learned. Even highly motivated learners facing the difficulty of memorizing vocabulary lose their motivation, because memorizing requires them to make efforts to keep increasing vocabulary accurately. Vocabulary needs great repetition drills to establish (Atake, 2003). It is true that drills are sometimes boring, but there is a simple solution for this problem, insert games to make drills fun. Games bring in relaxation and fun for students, thus help them learn and retain new words more easily( Thanh Huyen, Thu Nga,2003 , Learning Vocabulary Through Games,para.1). For learning vocabulary, learners need to be able to remember long term. Information, first is held in short-term memory and by lack of attention, it is quickly lost. In order for the information in the short term to be retained, enough rehearsal and elaboration is needed. The more that the knowledge is rehearsed in the memory the more likely it is to be retained in long term memory (Klepper, 2003). It is important to keep student attention, in order to increase their ability to retain words. One way to keep students attention as scholar suggested is emotion. When an educator creates emotion, such as in a game format, music, or drama, then the students attention is most likely to remain with the material and task at hand. In addition, using this strategy directly after a lesson increases the chances that the material will be recalled later.(Meyen, et. al.1999,cited in Klepper, 2003) The other related field is games and motivation. We know that motivation is the root problem in learning. Without due attention to motivational inputs, they [output or ends of learning] are rarely achieved (Clark, 2007, p.11). In order to achieve learning goal, teachers should pay attention to motivating strategies and One of these strategies used by teachers, as Hootstein (1994) mentioned, is using games. While you are teaching, sometimes you feel your students are just physically in the class, and what happen to attention? Not even a sign of it, what is the reason? As Ersoz (2002) mentioned, language learning is a hard task which can sometimes be frustrating. Constant effort is required to understand, produce, and manipulate the target language (p.1). It is hard for students to keep trying to overcome their frustration and unfortunately, it is possible for students to easily lose their motivation (Atake, 2003, p.9). When learners face so many essential words to comprehend and produ ce a language, they will find learning a burden. This burden is so heavy that makes even highly motivated learners, demotivate. Research shows that games can serve to motivate and interest student in learning (Hogle, 1996, p.8-10). Most scholars ( Wright, Betteridge , Buckby , 1984; Ersoz , 2000; Su Kim, 1995; Uberman, 1998; Lee,1979;Richard-Amato, 1988; Hansen, 1994; Wierus and Wierus, 1994; Zdybiewska, 1994; Thanh Huyen Thu Nga, 2003; Yong Mei Yu-jing, 2000; Lewis, 1999;Tyson, 2000; Lengeling Malarcher, 1997) believe in the significant role of games in EFL field specially vocabulary development in addition some complained about the negligence of its importance; as Lee stated, a game should not be regarded as a marginal activity filling in odd moments when the teacher and class have nothing better to do (Language teaching games and contests, 1979; cited in Using Games in EFL Classes for Children,2000 ). He also says that games should be treated as central not peripheral to the foreign language teaching program. Thanh Huyen and Thu Nga,also aptly mentioned the advantages of using of games: Games have been shown to have advantages and effectiveness in learning vocabulary in various ways. First, games bring in relaxation and fun for students, thus help them learn and retain new words more easily. Second, games usually involve friendly competition and they keep learners interested. These create the motivation for learners of English to get involved and participate actively in the learning activities. Therefore, the role of games in teaching and learning vocabulary cannot be denied. ( 2003 , Learning Vocabulary Through Games,para.1) However, considering games, as the central activity does not mean it is a safe way to stick to it and call it super technique. It can be said that games are an effective tool, but as Thanh Huyen and Thu Nga themselves observed, a matter of caution still remains: However, in order to achieve the most from vocabulary games, it is essential that suitable games are chosen. Whenever a game is to be conducted, the number of students, proficiency level, cultural context, timing, learning topic, and the classroom settings are factors that should be taken into account.( 2003 , Learning Vocabulary Through Games,para.1) So games are effective as long as their style, as Dunne (1984) reported, match with subject matter and types of student.

Friday, October 25, 2019

Creating Text Essay -- Writing Technology Technological Papers

Creating Text The process of creating â€Å"text† without using technology appeared to be a simple task that would allow the students to be a creator of his or her unique technology free masterpiece. I just had to come up with a creative, natural way to write text instead of using modern technologies that society takes for granted. How hard and restrictive could this assignment be? I soon found out everything would not go exactly as planned. It took me two attempts and failures before I finally achieved some level of success. My first idea came to me while I was getting ready one morning. Why not use hair to create text! It is a natural part of the human body that is constantly growing, natural and indispensable. I could have taken hair, looped and knotted several clumps together to make letters and then placed those letters to spell out text on any surface. The hair would be portable but undoing the formed letters to create newly formed letters would have been time consuming and difficult. I have several friends who cut hair for a living and I could have easily had them give me hair they cut from their customers. I also attempted to ask my sister for her hair; she has dread locks which would have been easier to work with since they are so thick but she didn’t want to part with them for a homework assignment. The more I thought about this idea the more I realized how time consuming and unrealistic it would be. Using hair would be a creative way to develop text but I would need m ass quantities and lots of patience. My second idea came to me when I took a trip to the grocery store. I went to the produce section and circled around the stands looking for some piece of fruit or vegetable that ... ...gh the writing process can be revised, edited, and visually reviewed where speech is spur of the moment and final. Traditionalists often resisted writing and viewed the process as unnatural and untrustworthy (Dennis Baron 39). However, speech seems to demand more trust because the individual is exposing themselves to their audience which subjects them to high levels of criticism. Overall, this project has exposed the mechanics and technology involved in the writing process. Up until this point I put little thought or recognition into the process I use so widely on a regular basis. After the amount of time, energy, and thought that went in to my attempt to create â€Å"natural† writing mechanics and tools the frustration isn’t worth what seems to be a small victory. In the end the process of trying to think of something natural to create is unnatural.

Thursday, October 24, 2019

Bag of Bones CHAPTER THREE

My publisher didn't know, my editor Debra Weinstock didn't know, my agent Harold Oblowski didn't know. Frank Arlen didn't know, either, although on more than one occasion I had been tempted to tell him. Let me be your brother. For Jo's sake if not your own, he told me on the day he went back to his printing business and mostly solitary life in the southern Maine town of Sanford. I had never expected to take him up on that, and didn't not in the elemental cry-for-help way he might have been thinking about but I phoned him every couple of weeks or so. Guy-talk, you know How's it going, Not too bad, cold as a witch's tit, Yeah, here, too, You want to go down to Boston if I can get Bruins tickets, Maybe next year, pretty busy right now, Yeah, I know how that is, seeya, Mikey, Okay, Frank, keep your wee-wee in the teepee. Guy-talk. I'm pretty sure that once or twice he asked me if I was working on a new book, and I think I said Oh, fuck it that's a lie, okay? One so ingrown that now I'm even telling it to myself. He asked, all right, and I always said yeah, I was working on a new book, it was going good, real good. I was tempted more than once to tell him I can't write two paragraphs without going into total mental and physical doglock my heartbeat doubles, then triples, I get short of breath and then start to pant, my eyes feel like they're going to pop out of my head and hang there on my cheeks. I'm like a claustrophobe in a sinking submarine. That's how it's going, thanks for asking, but I never did. I don't call for help. I can't call for help. I think I told you that. From my admittedly prejudiced standpoint, successful novelists even modestly successful novelists have got the best gig in the creative arts. It's true that people buy more CDS than books, go to more movies, and watch a lot more TV. But the arc of productivity is longer for novelists, perhaps because readers are a little brighter than fans of the non-written arts, and thus have marginally longer memories. David Soul of Starsky and Hutch is God knows where, same with that peculiar white rapper Vanilla Ice, but in 1994, Herman Wouk, James Michener, and Norman Mailer were all still around; talk about when dinosaurs walked the earth. Arthur Hailey was writing a new book (that was the rumor, anyway, and it turned out to be true), Thomas Harris could take seven years between Lecters and still produce bestsellers, and although not heard from in almost forty years, J. D. Salinger was still a hot topic in English classes and informal coffee-house literary groups. Readers have a loyalty that cannot be matched anywhere else in the creative arts, which explains why so many writers who have run out of gas can keep coasting anyway, propelled onto the bestseller lists by the magic words AUTHOR OF on the covers of their books. What the publisher wants in return, especially from an author who can be counted on to sell 500,000 or so copies of each novel in hardcover and a million more in paperback, is perfectly simple: a book a year. That, the wallahs in New York have determined, is the optimum. Three hundred and eighty pages bound by string or glue every twelve months, a beginning, a middle, and an end, continuing main character like Kinsey Millhone or Kay Scarpetta optional but very much preferred. Readers love continuing characters; it's like coming back to family. Less than a book a year and you're screwing up the publisher's investment in you, hampering your business manager's ability to continue floating all of your credit cards, and jeopardizing your agent's ability to pay his shrink on time. Also, there's always some fan attrition when you take too long. Can't be helped. Just as, if you publish too much, there are readers who'll say, ‘Phew, I've had enough of this guy for awhile, it's all starting to taste like beans.' I tell you all this so you'll understand how I could spend four years using my computer as the world's most expensive Scrabble board, and no one ever suspected. Writer's block? What writer's block? We don't got no steenkin writer's block. How could anyone think such a thing when there was a new Michael Noonan suspense novel appearing each fall just like clockwork, perfect for your late-summer pleasure reading, folks, and by the way, don't forget that the holidays are coming and that all your relatives would also probably enjoy the new Noonan, which can he had at Borders at a thirty percent discount, oy vay, such a deal. The secret is simple, and I am not the only popular novelist in America who knows it if the rumors are correct, Danielle Steel (to name just one) has been using the Noonan Formula for decades. You see, although I have published a book a year starting with Being Two in 1984, I wrote two books in four of those ten years, publishing one and ratholing the other. I don't remember ever talking about this with Jo, and since she never asked, I always assumed she understood what I was doing: saving up nuts. It wasn't writer's block I was thinking of, though. Shit, I was just having fun. By February of 1995, after crashing and burning with at least two good ideas (that particular function the Eureka! thing has never stopped, which creates its own special version of hell), I could no longer deny the obvious: I was in the worst sort of trouble a writer can get into, barring Alzheimer's or a cataclysmic stroke. Still, I had four cardboard manuscript boxes in the big safe-deposit box I keep up at Fidelity Union. They were marked Promise, Threat, Darcy, and Top. Around Valentine's Day, my agent called, moderately nervous I usually delivered my latest masterpiece to him by January, and here it was already half-past February. They would have to crash production to get this year's Mike Noonan out in time for the annual Christmas buying orgy. Was everything all right? This was my first chance to say things were a country mile from all but Mr. Harold Oblowski of 225 Park Avenue wasn't the sort of man you said such things to. He was a fine agent, both liked and loathed in publishing circles (sometimes by the same people at the same time), but he didn't adapt well to bad news from the dark and oil.treaked levels where the goods were actually produced. He would have freaked and been on the next plane to Derry, ready to give me creative mouth-to-mouth, adamant in his resolve not to leave until he had yanked me out of my fugue. No, I liked Harold right where he was, in his thirty-eighth-floor office with its kickass view of the East Side. I told him what a coincidence, Harold, you calling on the very day I finished the new one, gosharooty, how 'bout that, I'll send it out FedEx, you'll have it tomorrow. Harold assured me solemnly that there was no coincidence about it, that where his writers were concerned, he was telepathic. Then he congratulated me and hung up. Two hours later I received his bouquet-every bit as fulsome and silky as one of his Jimmy Hollywood ascots. After putting the flowers in the dining room, where I rarely went since Jo died, I went down to Fidelity Union. I used my key, the bank manager used his, and soon enough I was on my way to FedEx with the manuscript of All the Way from the Top. I took the most recent book because it was the one closest to the front of the box, that's all. In November it was published just in time for the Christmas rush. I dedicated it to the memory of my late, beloved wife, Johanna. It went to number eleven on the Times bestseller list, and everyone went home happy. Even me. Because things would get better, wouldn't they? No one had terminal writer's block, did they (well, with the possible exception of Harper Lee)? All I had to do was relax, as the chorus girl said to the archbishop. And thank God I'd been a good squirrel and saved up my nuts. I was still optimistic the following year when I drove down to the Federal Express office with Threatening Behavior. That one was written in the fall of 1991, and had been one of Jo's favorites. Optimism had faded quite a little bit by March of 1997, when I drove through a wet snowstorm with Darcy's Admirer, although when people asked me how it was going (‘Writing any good books lately?' is the existential way most seem to phrase the question), I still answered good, fine, yeah, writing lots of good books lately, they're pouring out of me like shit out of a cow's ass. After Harold had read Darcy and pronounced it my best ever, a best-seller which was also serious, I hesitantly broached the idea of taking a year off. He responded immediately with the question I detest above all others: was I all right? Sure, I told him, fine as freckles, just thinking about easing off a little. There followed one of those patented Harold Oblowski silences, which were meant to convey that you were being a terrific asshole, but because Harold liked you so much, he was trying to think of the gentlest possible way of telling you so. This is a wonderful trick, but one I saw through about six years ago. Actually, it was Jo who saw through it. ‘He's only pretending compassion,' she said. ‘Actually, he's like a cop in one of those old film noir movies, keeping his mouth shut so you'll blunder ahead and end up confessing to everything.' This time I kept my mouth shut just switched the phone from my right ear to my left, and rocked back a little further in my office chair. When I did, my eye fell on the framed photograph over my computer Sara Laughs, our place on Dark Score Lake. I hadn't been there in eons, and for a moment I consciously wondered why. Then Harold's voice cautious, comforting, the voice of a sane man trying to talk a lunatic out of what he hopes will be no more than a passing delusion was back in my ear. ‘That might not be a good idea, Mike not at this stage of your career.' ‘This isn't a stage,' I said. ‘I peaked in 1991 since then, my sales haven't really gone up or down. This is a plateau, Harold.' ‘Yes,' he said, ‘and writers who've reached that steady state really only have two choices in terms of sales they can continue as they are, or they can go down.' So I go down, I thought of saying . . . but didn't. I didn't want Harold to know exactly how deep this went, or how shaky the ground under me was. I didn't want him to know that I was now having heart palpitations-yes, I mean this literally almost every time I opened the Word Six program on my computer and looked at the blank screen and flashing cursor. ‘Yeah,' I said. ‘Okay. Message received.' ‘You're sure you're all right?' ‘Does the book read like I'm wrong, Harold?' ‘Hell, no it's a helluva yarn. Your personal best, I told you. A great read but also fucking serious shit. If Saul Bellow wrote romantic suspense fiction, this is what he'd write. But . . . you're not having any trouble with :the next one, are you? I know you're still missing Jo, hell, we all are ‘ ‘No,' I said. ‘No trouble at all.' Another of those long silences ensued. I endured it. At last Harold said, ‘Grisham could afford to take a year off. Clancy could. Thomas Harris, the long silences are a part of his mystique. But where you are, life is even tougher than at the very top, Mike. There are five writers for every one of those spots down on the list, and you know who they are hell, they're your neighbors three months a year. Some are going up, the way Patricia Cornwell went up with her last two books, some are going down, and some are staying steady, like you. If Tom Clancy were to go on hiatus for five years and then bring Jack Ryan back, he'd come back strong, no argument. If you go on hiatus for five years, maybe you don't come back at all. My advice is ‘ ‘Make hay while the sun shines.' ‘Took the words right out of my mouth.' We talked a little more, then said our goodbyes. I leaned back further in my office chair not all the way to the tip over point but close and looked at the photo of our western Maine retreat. Sara Laughs, sort of like the title of that hoary old Hall and Oates ballad. Jo had loved it more, true enough, but only by a little, so why had I been staying away? Bill Dean, the caretaker, took down the storm shutters every spring and put them back up every fall, drained the pipes in the fall and made sure the pump was running in the spring, checked the generator and took care to see that all the maintenance tags were current, anchored the swimming float fifty yards or so off our little lick of beach after each Memorial Day. Bill had the chimney cleaned in the early summer of '96, although there hadn't been a fire in the fireplace for two years or more. I paid him quarterly, as is the custom with caretakers in that part of the world; Bill Dean, old Yankee from a long line of them, cashed my checks and didn't ask why I never used my place anymore. I'd only been down two or three times since Jo died, and not a single overnight. Good thing Bill didn't ask, because I don't know what answer I would have given him. I hadn't even really thought about Sara Laughs until my conversation with Harold. Thinking of Harold, I looked away from the photo and back at the phone. Imagined saying to him, So I go down, so what? The world comes to an end? Please. It isn't as if I had a wife and family to support the wife died in a drugstore parking lot, if you please (or even if you don't please), and the kid we wanted so badly and tried for so long went with her, I don't crave the fame, either if writers who fill the lower slots on the Times bestseller list can be said to be famous and I don't fall asleep dreaming of book club sales. So why? Why does it even bother me? But that last one I could answer. Because it felt like giving up. Because without my wife and my work, I was a superfluous man living alone in a big house that was all paid for, doing nothing but the newspaper crossword over lunch. I pushed on with what passed for my life. I forgot about Sara Laughs (or some part of me that didn't want to go there buried the idea) and spent another sweltering, miserable summer in Derry. I put a cruciverbalist program on my Powerbook and began making my own crossword puzzles. I took an interim appointment on the local YMCA's board of directors and judged the Summer Arts Competition in Waterville. I did a series of TV ads for the local homeless shelter, which was staggering toward bankruptcy, then served on that board for awhile. (At one public meeting of this latter board a woman called me a friend of degenerates, to which I replied, ‘Thanks! I needed that.' This resulted in a loud outburst of applause which I still don't understand.) I tried some one-on-one counselling and gave it up after five appointments, deciding that the counsellor's problems were far worse than mine. I sponsored an Asian child and bowled with a league. Sometimes I tried to write, and every time I did, I locked up. Once, when I tried to force a sentence or two (any sentence or two, just as long as they came fresh-baked out of my own head), I had to grab the wastebasket and vomit into it. I vomited until I thought it was going to kill me . . . and I did have to literally crawl away from the desk and the computer, pulling myself across the deep-pile rug on my hands and knees. By the time I got to the other side of the room, it was better. I could even look back over my shoulder at the VDT screen. I just couldn't get near it. Later that day, I approached it with my eyes shut and turned it off. More and more often during those late-summer days I thought of Dennison Carville, the creative-writing teacher who'd helped me connect with Harold and who had damned Being Two with such faint praise. Camille once said something I never forgot, attributing it to Thomas Hardy, the Victorian novelist and poet. Perhaps Hardy did say it, but I've never found it repeated, not in Bartlett's, not in the Hardy biography I read between the publications of All the Way from the Top and Threatening Behavior. I have an idea Carville may have made it up himself and then attributed it to Hardy in order to give it more weight. It's a ploy I have used myself from time to time, I'm ashamed to say. In any case, I thought about this quote more and more as I struggled with the panic in my body and the frozen feeling in my head, that awful locked-up feeling. It seemed to sum up my despair and my growing certainty that I would never be able to write again (what a tragedy, V. C. Andrews with a prick felled by writer's block). It was this quote that suggested any effort I made to better my situation might be meaningless even if it succeeded. According to gloomy old Dennison Carville, the aspiring novelist should understand from the outset that fiction's goals were forever beyond his reach, that the job was an exercise in futility. ‘Compared to the dullest human being actually walking about on the face of the earth and casting his shadow there,' Hardy supposedly said, ‘the most brilliantly drawn character in a novel is but a bag of bones.' I understood because that was what I felt like in those interminable, dissembling days: a bag of bones. Last night I dreamt I went to Manderley again. If there is any more beautiful and haunting first line in English fiction, I've never read it. And it was a line I had cause to think of a lot during the fall of 1997 and the winter of 1998. I didn't dream of Manderley, of course, but of Sara Laughs, which Jo sometimes called ‘the hideout.' A fair enough description, I guess, for a place so far up in the western Maine woods that it's not really even in a town at all, but in an unincorporated area designated on state maps as RR-90. The last of these dreams was a nightmare, but until that one they had a kind of surreal simplicity. They were dreams I'd awake from wanting to turn on the bedroom light so I could reconfirm my place in reality before going back to sleep. You know how the air feels before a thunderstorm, how everything gets still and colors seem to stand out with the brilliance of things seen during a high fever? My winter dreams of Sara Laughs were like that, each leaving me with a feeling that was not quite sickness. I've dreamt again of Manderley, I would think sometimes, and sometimes I would lie in bed with the light on, listening to the wind outside, looking into the bedroom's shadowy corners, and thinking that Rebecca de Winter hadn't drowned in a bay but in Dark Score Lake. That she had gone down, gurgling and flailing, her strange black eyes full of water, while the loons cried out indifferently in the twilight. Sometimes I would get up and drink a glass of water. Sometimes I just turned off the light after I was once more sure of where I was, rolled over on my side again, and went back to sleep. In the daytime I rarely thought of Sara Laughs at all, and it was only much later that I realized something is badly out of whack when there is such a dichotomy between a person's waking and sleeping lives. I think that Harold Oblowski's call in October of 1997 was what kicked off the dreams. Harold's ostensible reason for calling was to congratulate me on the impending release of Darcy's Admirer, which was entertaining as hell and which also contained some extremely thought-provoking shit. I suspected he had at least one other item on his agenda Harold usually does and I was right. He'd had lunch with Debra Weinstock, my editor, the day before, and they had gotten talking about the fall of 1998. ‘Looks crowded,' he said, meaning the fall lists, meaning specifically the fiction half of the fall lists. ‘And there are some surprise additions. Dean Koontz ‘ ‘I thought he usually published in January,' I said. ‘He does, but Debra hears this one may be delayed. He wants to add a section, or something. Also there's a Harold Robbins, The Predators ‘ ‘Big deal.' ‘Robbins still has his fans, Mike, still has his fans. As you yourself have pointed out on more than one occasion, fiction writers have a long arc.' ‘Uh-huh.' I switched the telephone to the other ear and leaned back in my chair. I caught a glimpse of the framed Sara Laughs photo over my desk when I did. I would be visiting it at greater length and proximity that night in my dreams, although I didn't know that then; all I knew then was that I wished like almighty fuck that Harold Oblowski would hurry up and get to the point. ‘I sense impatience, Michael my boy,' Harold said. ‘Did I catch you at your desk? Are you writing?' ‘Just finished for the day,' I said. ‘I am thinking about lunch, however.' ‘I'll be quick,' he promised, ‘but hang with me, this is important. There may be as many as five other writers that we didn't expect publishing next fall: Ken Follett . . . it's supposed to be his best since Eye of the Needle . . . Belva Plain . . . John Jakes . . . ‘ ‘None of those guys plays tennis on my court,' I said, although I knew that was not exactly Harold's point; Harold's point was that there are only fifteen slots on the Times list. ‘How about Jean Auel, finally publishing the next of her sex-among-the-cave-people epics?' I sat up. ‘Jean Auel? Really?' ‘Well . . . not a hundred percent, but it looks good. Last but not least is a new Mary Higgins Clark. I know what tennis court she plays on, and so do you.' If I'd gotten that sort of news six or seven years earlier, when I'd felt I had a great deal more to protect, I would have been frothing; Mary Higgins Clark did play on the same court, shared exactly the same audience, and so far our publishing schedules had been arranged to keep us out of each other's way . . . which was to my benefit rather than hers, let me assure you. Going nose to nose, she would cream me. As the late Jim Croce so wisely observed, you don't tug on Superman's cape, you don't spit into the wind, you don't pull the mask off that old Lone Ranger, and you don't mess around with Mary Higgins Clark. Not if you're Michael Noonan, anyway. ‘How did this happen?' I asked. I don't think my tone was particularly ominous, but Harold replied in the nervous, stumbling-all-over-his-own-words fashion of a man who suspects he may be fired or even beheaded for bearing evil tidings. ‘I don't know. She just happened to get an extra idea this year, I guess. That does happen, I've been told.' As a fellow who had taken his share of double-dips I knew it did, so I simply asked Harold what he wanted. It seemed the quickest and easiest way to get him to relinquish the phone. The answer was no surprise; what he and Debra both wanted not to mention all the rest of my Putnam pals was a book they could publish in late summer of '98, thus getting in front of Ms. Clark and the rest of the competition by a couple of months. Then, in November, the Putnam sales reps would give the novel a healthy second push, with the Christmas season in mind. ‘So they say,' I replied. Like most novelists (and in this regard the successful are no different from the unsuccessful, indicating there might be some merit to the idea as well as the usual free-floating paranoia), I never trusted publishers' promises. ‘I think you can believe them on this, Mike Darcy's Admirer was the last book of your old contract, remember.' Harold sounded almost sprightly at the thought of forthcoming contract negotiations with Debra Weinstock and Phyllis Grann at Putnam. ‘The big thing is they still like you. They'd like you even more, I think, if they saw pages with your name on them before Thanksgiving.' ‘They want me to give them the next book in November? Next month?' I injected what I hoped was the right note of incredulity into my voice, just as if I hadn't had Helen's Promise in a safe-deposit box for almost eleven years. It had been the first nut I had stored; it was now the only nut I had left. ‘No, no, you could have until January fifteenth, at least,' he said, trying to sound magnanimous. I found myself wondering where he and Debra had gotten their lunch. Some fly place, I would have bet my life on that. Maybe Four Seasons. Johanna always used to call that place Valli and the Four Seasons. ‘It means they'd have to crash production, seriously crash it, but they're willing to do that. The real question is whether or not you could crash production.' ‘I think I could, but it'll cost em,' I said. ‘Tell them to think of it as being like same-day service on your dry-cleaning.' ‘Oh what a rotten shame for them!' Harold sounded as if he were maybe jacking off and had reached the point where Old Faithful splurts and everybody snaps their Instamatics. ‘How much do you think ‘ ‘A surcharge tacked on to the advance is probably the way to go,' he said. ‘They'll get pouty of course, claim that the move is in your interest, too. Primarily in your interest, even. But based on the extra-work argument . . . the midnight oil you'll have to burn . . . ‘ ‘The mental agony of creation . . . the pangs of premature birth . . . ‘ ‘Right . . . right . . . I think a ten percent surcharge sounds about right.' He spoke judiciously, like a man trying to be just as damned fair as he possibly could. Myself, I was wondering how many women would induce birth a month or so early if they got paid two or three hundred grand extra for doing so. Probably some questions are best left unanswered. And in my case, what difference did it make? The goddam thing was written, wasn't it? ‘Well, see if you can make the deal,' I said. ‘Yes, but I don't think we want to be talking about just a single book here, okay? I think ‘ ‘Harold, what I want right now is to eat some lunch.' ‘You sound a little tense, Michael. Is everything ‘ ‘Everything is fine. Talk to them about just one book, with a sweetener for speeding up production at my end. Okay?' ‘Okay,' he said after one of his most significant pauses. ‘But I hope this doesn't mean that you won't entertain a three- or four-book contract later on. Make hay while the sun shines, remember. It's the motto Of champions.' ‘Cross each bridge when you come to it is the motto of champions,' I said, and that night I dreamt I went to Sara Laughs again. In that dream in all the dreams I had that fall and winter I am walking up the lane to the lodge. The lane is a two-mile loop through the woods with ends opening onto Route 68. It has a number at either end (Lane Forty-two, if it matters) in case you have to call in a fire, but no name. Nor did Jo and I ever give it one, not even between ourselves. It is narrow, really just a double rut with timothy and witchgrass growing on the crown. When you drive in, you can hear that grass whispering like low voices against the undercarriage of your car or truck. I don't drive in the dream, though. I never drive. In these dreams I walk. The trees huddle in close on either side of the lane. The darkening sky overhead is little more than a slot. Soon I will be able to see the first peeping stars. Sunset is past. Crickets chirr. Loons cry on the lake. Small things chipmunks, probably, or the occasional squirrel rustle in the woods. Now I come to a dirt driveway sloping down the hill on my right. It is our driveway, marked with a little wooden sign which reads SARA LAUGHS. I stand at the head of it, but I don't go down. Below is the lodge. It's all logs and added-on wings, with a deck jutting out behind. Fourteen rooms in all, a ridiculous number of rooms. It should look ugly and awkward, but somehow it does not. There is a brave-dowager quality to Sara, the look of a lady pressing resolutely on toward her hundredth year, still taking pretty good strides in spite of her arthritic hips and gimpy old knees. The central section is the oldest, dating back to 1900 or so. Other sections were added in the thirties, forties, and sixties. Once it was a hunting lodge; for a brief period in the early seventies it was home to a small commune of transcendental hippies. These were lease or rental deals; the owners from the late forties until 1984 were the Hingermans, Darren and Marie . . . then Marie alone when Darren died in 1971. The only visible addition from our period of ownership is the tiny DSS dish mounted on the central roofpeak. That was Johanna's idea, and she never really got a chance to enjoy it. Beyond the house, the lake glimmers in the afterglow of sunset. The driveway, I see, is carpeted with brown pine needles and littered with fallen branches. The bushes which grow on either side of it have run wild, reaching out to one another like lovers across the narrowed gap which separates them. If you brought a car down here, the branches would scrape and unpleasantly against its sides. Below, I see, there's moss growing logs of the main house, and three large sunflowers with faces like have grown up through the boards of the little driveway-side. The overall feeling is not neglect, exactly, but forgottenness. There is a breath of breeze, and its coldness on my skin makes me that I have been sweating. I can smell pine a smell which is sour and clean at the same time and the faint but somehow smell of the lake. Dark Score is one of the cleanest, deepest in Maine. It was bigger until the late thirties, Marie Hingerman us; that was when Western Maine Electric, working hand in hand the mills and paper operations around Rumford, had gotten state to dam the Gessa River. Marie also showed us some charming photographs of white-frocked ladies and vested gentlemen in canoes snaps were from the time of the First World War, she said, and to one of the young women, frozen forever on the rim of the with a dripping paddle upraised. ‘That's my mother,' she said, the man she's threatening with the paddle is my father.' Loons crying, their voices like loss. Now I can see Venus in the dark-sky. Star light, star bright, wish I may, wish I might . . . in these I always wish for Johanna. With my wish made, I try to walk down the driveway. Of course I do. Its my house, isn't it? Where else would I go but my house, now that dark and now that the stealthy rustling in the woods seems closer and somehow more purposeful? Where else can I go? It's dark, and it will be frightening to go into that dark place alone (suppose been left so long alone? suppose she's angry?), but I must. If the electricity's off, I'll light one of the hurricane lamps we keep in a kitchen cabinet. I can't go down. My legs won't move. It's as if my body knows something about the house down there that my brain does not. The breeze rises again, chilling gooseflesh out onto my skin, and I wonder what I have done to get myself all sweaty like this. Have I been running? And if so, what have I been running toward? Or from? My hair is sweaty, too; it lies on my brow in an unpleasantly heavy clump. I raise my hand to brush it away and see there is a shallow cut, fairly recent, running across the back, just beyond the knuckles. Sometimes this cut is on my right hand, sometimes it's on the left. I think, If this is a dream, the details are good. Always that same thought: If this is a dream, the details are good. It's the absolute truth. They are a novelist's details . . . but in dreams, perhaps everyone is a novelist. How is one to know? Now Sara Laughs is only a dark hulk down below, and I realize I don't want to go down there, anyway. I am a man who has trained his mind to misbehave, and I can imagine too many things waiting for me inside. A rabid raccoon crouched in a corner of the kitchen. Bats in the bath-room if disturbed they'll crowd the air around my cringing face, squeaking and fluttering against my cheeks with their dusty wings. Even one of William Denbrough's famous Creatures from Beyond the Universe, now hiding under the porch and watching me approach with glittering, pus-rimmed eyes. ‘Well, I can't stay up here,' I say, but my legs won't move, and it seems I will be staying up here, where the driveway meets the lane; that I will be staying up here, like it or not. Now the rustling in the woods behind me sounds not like small animals (most of them would by then be nested or burrowed for the night, anyway) but approaching footsteps. I try to turn and see, but I can't even do that . . . . . . and that was where I usually woke up. The first thing I always did was to turn over, establishing my return to reality by demonstrating to myself that my body would once more obey my mind. Sometimes most times, actually I would find myself thinking Manderley, I have dreamt again of Manderley. There was something creepy about this (there's something creepy about any repeating dream, I think, about knowing your subconscious is digging obsessively at some object that won't be dislodged), but I would be lying if I didn't add that some part of me enjoyed the breathless summer calm in which the dream always wrapped me, and that part also enjoyed the sadness and foreboding I felt when I awoke. There was an exotic strangeness to the dream that was missing from my waking life, now that the road leading out of my imagination was so effectively blocked. The only time I remember being really frightened (and I must tell I don't completely trust any of these memories, because for so long they didn't seem to exist at all) was when I awoke one night speaking clearly into the dark of my bedroom: ‘Something's behind me, don't let it get me, something in the woods, please don't let it get me.' wasn't the words themselves that frightened me so much as the tone in which they were spoken. It was the voice of a man on the raw edge of panic, and hardly seemed like my own voice at all. Two days before Christmas of 1997, I once more drove down to Fidelity where once more the bank manager escorted me to my safe-box in the fluorescent-lit catacombs. As we walked down the stairs he assured me (for the dozenth time, at least) that his wife was a huge fan of my work, she'd read all my books, couldn't get enough. For the dozenth time (at least) I replied that now I must get him in my clutches. He responded with his usual chuckle. I thought of this oft-repeated exchange as Banker's Communion. Mr. Quinlan inserted his key in Slot A and turned it. Then, as discreetly as a pimp who has conveyed a customer to a whore's crib, he left. I inserted my own key in Slot B, turned it, and opened the drawer. It very vast now. The one remaining manuscript box seemed almost to quail in the far corner, like an abandoned puppy who somehow knows his sibs have been taken off and gassed. Promise was scrawled across the top in fat black letters. I could barely remember what the goddam story was about. I snatched that time-traveller from the eighties and slammed the box shut. Nothing left in there now but dust. Give me that, Jo had hissed in my dream it was the first time I'd thought of that one in years. Give me that, it's my dust-catcher. Mr Quinlan, I'm finished,' I called. My voice sounded rough and unsteady to my own ears, but Quinlan seemed to sense nothing wrong . . . or perhaps he was just being discreet. I can't have been the only customer after all, who found his or her visits to this financial version of Forest Lawn emotionally distressful. ‘I'm really going to read one of your books,' he said, dropping an involuntary little glance at the box I was holding (I suppose I could have brought a briefcase to put it in, but on those expeditions I never did). ‘In fact, I think I'll put it on my list of New Year's resolutions.' ‘You do that,' I said. ‘You just do that, Mr. Quinlan.' ‘Mark,' he said. ‘Please.' He'd said this before, too. I had composed two letters, which I slipped into the manuscript box before setting out for Federal Express. Both had been written on my computer, which my body would let me use as long as I chose the Note Pad function. It was only opening Word Six that caused the storms to start. I never tried to compose a novel using the Note Pad function, understanding that if I did, I'd likely lose that option, too . . . not to mention my ability to play Scrabble and do crosswords on the machine. I had tried a couple of times to compose longhand, with spectacular lack of success. The problem wasn't what I had once heard described as ‘screen shyness'; I had proved that to myself. One of the notes was to Harold, the other to Debra Weinstock, and both said pretty much the same thing: here's the new book, Helen's Promise, hope you like it as much as I do, if it seems a little rough it's because I had to work a lot of extra hours to finish it this soon, Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Erin Go Bragh, trick or treat, hope someone gives you a fucking pony. I stood for almost an hour in a line of shuffling, bitter-eyed late mailers (Christmas is such a carefree, low-pressure time that's one of the things I love about it), with Helen's Promise under my left arm and a paperback copy of Nelson DeMille's The Charm School in my right hand. I read almost fifty pages before entrusting my final unpublished novel to a harried-looking clerk. When I wished her a Merry Christmas she shuddered and said nothing.